Favorite up 10 at the half
Books often hang a second-half number as if the game restarts. If the favorite's scoring rate says the margin should keep growing, the fair spread can sit two or three points off the posted one.
NFL in-game lines move on every snap, but the book's number leans hard on the pregame price. Ours is rebuilt from scoring rates, the clock and who has the ball — so when the two disagree, you can see it in plain points.
Football is a possession game. With roughly eleven drives a side, one possession is worth real points, and a touchdown swings the fair spread by close to seven. The books know this, but their live numbers still shade toward pregame and public money. The gaps tend to open after fast scores, long injury delays and any quarter where both offenses go quiet — the book hangs the total, the clock keeps running.
Books often hang a second-half number as if the game restarts. If the favorite's scoring rate says the margin should keep growing, the fair spread can sit two or three points off the posted one.
Two scoreless-ish quarters drag the fair total down fast. Books cut the total slower than the clock does. When fair sits four or more under the posted number, the under is usually the read.
A touchdown underdog driving late in the third is often priced like it's still pregame. Possession value plus time confidence can pull the fair spread inside the key number before the book moves.
Scores and clock come from the public ESPN feed; posted spreads, totals and moneylines are scraped live from a public sportsbook feed, including in-play numbers. Everything refreshes every 15 seconds. Fair numbers are the model's own. For entertainment. 21+ where required.